The biggest rivalry in AFLE broken down by the numbers
When Vienna Vikings travel to Rhein Fire in Week 9, the two best teams in AFLE go head to head for the second time this season. The Vikings won the first meeting 24:10. The numbers on both sides suggest this will be even harder to call.
Two offenses at the top of the league
The gap between these two offenses and the rest of the league is significant. Vienna lead the league in points per game at 46.4, total yards per game at 485.7 and yards per play at 7.61. Rhein Fire sit second in points per game at 37.7 and yards per play at 6.94, but lead the entire league in offensive EPA (Expected Points Added) per play at 0.51 and offensive success rate at 59.3%. When two offenses of this calibre meet, points are almost guaranteed.
Holmes vs Bahar
Ben Holmes has had a remarkable season. In seven games he has thrown for 1,800 yards, 20 touchdowns and just one interception, posting a quarterback rating of 136.9. He has been sacked just once all season personally, with backup Nico Hrouda accounting for the one other sack allowed, a direct reflection of the protection his offensive line provides. Kenji Bahar has been nearly as impressive for Rhein Fire, throwing for 1,434 yards and 18 touchdowns with four interceptions and a rating of 128.8. Holmes is completing 69.1% of his passes. Bahar is at 69.2%. The statistics between these two quarterbacks are remarkably close.
The red zone problem and the red zone machine
One number stands out from the Rhein Fire scouting report: their red zone defense has allowed opponents to score on 75.0% of their trips inside the 20, the worst rate in the league. The timing of facing Vienna could hardly be worse. The Vikings convert red zone possessions into touchdowns at an 80.6% rate, the best in the league. Holmes himself carries the ball 26 times on the season with 13 of those inside the red zone and 12 at the goal line, making him a genuine dual threat in scoring territory.
Third down
Vienna convert on third down at a rate of 59.8%, the best in the league. Rhein Fire’s defense stops opponents on third and long at a rate of 68.6%, one of their stronger areas. How the Fire manage long-yardage situations against Holmes and his receivers will be one of the key battles of the game. Conversely, Rhein Fire convert 76.5% of their own medium third downs on offense, a number that gives Bahar and his offense real confidence in those situations.
The ground game
Both teams run the ball effectively. Vienna average 173.6 rush yards per game, with Albert Wiesigstrauch averaging 7.1 yards per carry and Karri Pajarinen adding 5.3. Rhein Fire’s Jonathan Scott averages 5.1 yards per carry with six touchdowns on the season and carries 50% of Rhein Fire’s rushing load. Scott is also a significant receiving weapon, catching 87.5% of his targets and adding three receiving touchdowns. The team that controls the line of scrimmage and establishes the run will have a significant advantage.
Turnover battle
Vienna lead the league in turnover differential at plus 14, with 16 takeaways and only two giveaways. Rhein Fire are also on the positive side at plus 8, with 15 takeaways and 7 giveaways. Holmes‘ one interception all season makes him an extremely difficult quarterback to force into mistakes. Rhein Fire’s best chance of a significant swing in this game may come from the defensive side creating turnovers, as they did with Nazir Streater against the Panthers Wroclaw last week.
What the first game tells us
Vienna won the first meeting 24:10 in Week 3, holding Rhein Fire to their lowest points total of the season. Since then, Rhein Fire have won four straight and look like a better team than they were in that early-season loss. Vienna, meanwhile, have not lost a game all season. The numbers favor the Vikings across the board, but Rhein Fire at home, on a four-game winning streak, with the league’s most efficient offense, represent the stiffest test yet for an unbeaten side.
